Cancer Council NSW logo
13 11 20 Information & Support
Select or press enter to search
Donate now
Menu
  • About Us
  • News
  • Shop
  • Health professionals
  • flags
  • About Cancer
    Find information about cancer types, coping with a diagnosis, treatments, side effects, living well after diagnosis & treatment, caring for loved ones, resources for your community and more.
    • What is cancer?
    • Types of cancer
      • Bowel cancer
      • Blood cancers
      • Breast cancer
      • Lung cancer
      • Melanoma
      • Prostate cancer
      • View 45 other cancers
    • Coping with a diagnosis
      • Coping with emotions
      • Tests and scans
      • Talking to kids about cancer
      • Cancer and your finances
      • Cancer and work
      • Cancer care and your rights
    • Cancer treatment
      • Treatment options
      • Chemotherapy
      • Radiation therapy
      • Surgery
      • Immunotherapy
      • Targeted therapy
      • Hormone therapy
      • Clinical trials
      • Palliative treatment
    • Managing side effects
      • Fatigue
      • Taste and smell changes
      • Hair loss
      • Pain and cancer
      • Peripheral neuropathy
      • Changes in thinking and memory
      • Lymphoedema
      • Mouth health
      • Nutrition and cancer
      • Breast prostheses and reconstruction
      • Fertility
      • Sexuality
    • Supporting someone with cancer
      • Caring for someone with cancer
      • Caring for someone with advanced cancer
      • Family and friends
      • Supportive schools
      • Supportive workplaces
      • Caring for mob with cancer
    • Living well during and after treatment
      • Nutrition and cancer
      • Exercise and cancer
      • Complementary therapies
      • Living well after treatment
    • Advanced cancer
      • Living with advanced cancer
      • Caring for someone with advanced cancer
      • Palliative care
      • Facing end of life
      • Coping with grief
    • Information for your community
      • Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander peoples
      • Resources in different languages
      • Resources for LGBTQI+ people
    • Fact sheets, podcasts and more
      • Cancer resource hub – fact sheets, booklets and more
      • Cancer Council Podcasts
  • Get Support
    Our cancer helpline consultants are ready for your call to support all people impacted by cancer. We may be able to assist with direct support services or by putting you in touch with other people who can support you.
    • 13 11 20 – Speak to a cancer professional
    • How can we help you
      • Accommodation during treatment
      • Cancer Counselling
      • Financial Support
      • Legal & Workplace Support
      • Transport to treatment
      • Support after treatment
    • Connect with others
    • Online community
    • Coping with a diagnosis
      • Coping with emotions
      • Talking to kids about cancer
      • Cancer and your finances
      • Cancer and work
      • Cancer care and your rights
    • Health care professionals
    • Cancer stories
    • Cancer podcasts
    • Meditation and relaxation podcasts
  • Preventing Cancer
    Discover lifestyle choices to minimise your risk of getting cancer and the importance of screening and early detection for cancer survival.
    • Healthy diet and exercise
      • Limit alcohol
      • Be a healthy weight
      • Move more, sit less
      • Healthy Made Tasty
      • Our Kids Our Call
    • Quit smoking and vaping
      • Quit smoking
      • Tackling Tobacco
      • Smoke free environments
      • Electronic cigarettes
      • Generation Vape
    • Sun protection
      • Slip on a shirt
      • Slop on sunscreen
      • Slap on a hat
      • Seek shade
      • Slide on sunglasses
      • SunSmart NSW website
      • Improve your long game
      • Outdoor workers
      • Sporting groups
      • Buy sun protection products online
    • Screening and early detection
      • Cervical screening
      • Bowel cancer screening
      • Breast cancer screening
      • Lung cancer screening
      • Testicular cancer
      • Prostate cancer
      • Ovarian cancer
      • Liver cancer and hepatitis B
      • Check for skin cancer
    • CanAct – campaigning for better policies
    • Cancer Council shops
  • Research
    Research programs save lives, improve treatments and quality of life for cancer survivors.
    • Research we conduct
      • The Daffodil Centre
      • I-PaRCS
    • Research we fund
    • Search research by cancer type or topic
    • Information for researchers
      • Grant opportunities
    • Community participation in research
  • Get Involved
    Cancer Council exists through the generosity of the community. Find out how you can participate by donating, volunteering, fundraising or partnering with us.
    • Donate
      • Donate online
      • Make a regular donation
      • Donate in memory of a loved one
      • Make a major gift
      • Donate crypto
      • More ways to donate
    • Events and Fundraising
      • Events calendar
      • Fundraise your way – Do It For Cancer
      • Australia’s Biggest Morning Tea
      • Daffodil Day
      • Relay for Life
      • The Longest Day
      • The March Charge
      • 7 Bridges Walk
      • Stars Dance for Cancer
      • More ways to fundraise
    • Volunteer with us
    • Partnerships and philanthropy
      • Corporate Partnerships
      • Major gifts and philanthropy
      • Trusts and Foundations
    • Leave a gift in your will
    • Campaign with us
    • Work with us
    • Share your story
  • About Cancer
    Find information about cancer types, coping with a diagnosis, treatments, side effects, living well after diagnosis & treatment, caring for loved ones, resources for your community and more.
    • What is cancer?
    • Types of cancer
      • Bowel cancer
      • Blood cancers
      • Breast cancer
      • Lung cancer
      • Melanoma
      • Prostate cancer
      • View 45 other cancers
    • Coping with a diagnosis
      • Coping with emotions
      • Tests and scans
      • Talking to kids about cancer
      • Cancer and your finances
      • Cancer and work
      • Cancer care and your rights
    • Cancer treatment
      • Treatment options
      • Chemotherapy
      • Radiation therapy
      • Surgery
      • Immunotherapy
      • Targeted therapy
      • Hormone therapy
      • Clinical trials
      • Palliative treatment
    • Managing side effects
      • Fatigue
      • Taste and smell changes
      • Hair loss
      • Pain and cancer
      • Peripheral neuropathy
      • Changes in thinking and memory
      • Lymphoedema
      • Mouth health
      • Nutrition and cancer
      • Breast prostheses and reconstruction
      • Fertility
      • Sexuality
    • Supporting someone with cancer
      • Caring for someone with cancer
      • Caring for someone with advanced cancer
      • Family and friends
      • Supportive schools
      • Supportive workplaces
      • Caring for mob with cancer
    • Living well during and after treatment
      • Nutrition and cancer
      • Exercise and cancer
      • Complementary therapies
      • Living well after treatment
    • Advanced cancer
      • Living with advanced cancer
      • Caring for someone with advanced cancer
      • Palliative care
      • Facing end of life
      • Coping with grief
    • Information for your community
      • Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander peoples
      • Resources in different languages
      • Resources for LGBTQI+ people
    • Fact sheets, podcasts and more
      • Cancer resource hub – fact sheets, booklets and more
      • Cancer Council Podcasts
  • Get Support
    Our cancer helpline consultants are ready for your call to support all people impacted by cancer. We may be able to assist with direct support services or by putting you in touch with other people who can support you.
    • 13 11 20 – Speak to a cancer professional
    • How can we help you
      • Accommodation during treatment
      • Cancer Counselling
      • Financial Support
      • Legal & Workplace Support
      • Transport to treatment
      • Support after treatment
    • Connect with others
    • Online community
    • Coping with a diagnosis
      • Coping with emotions
      • Talking to kids about cancer
      • Cancer and your finances
      • Cancer and work
      • Cancer care and your rights
    • Health care professionals
    • Cancer stories
    • Cancer podcasts
    • Meditation and relaxation podcasts
  • Preventing Cancer
    Discover lifestyle choices to minimise your risk of getting cancer and the importance of screening and early detection for cancer survival.
    • Healthy diet and exercise
      • Limit alcohol
      • Be a healthy weight
      • Move more, sit less
      • Healthy Made Tasty
      • Our Kids Our Call
    • Quit smoking and vaping
      • Quit smoking
      • Tackling Tobacco
      • Smoke free environments
      • Electronic cigarettes
      • Generation Vape
    • Sun protection
      • Slip on a shirt
      • Slop on sunscreen
      • Slap on a hat
      • Seek shade
      • Slide on sunglasses
      • SunSmart NSW website
      • Improve your long game
      • Outdoor workers
      • Sporting groups
      • Buy sun protection products online
    • Screening and early detection
      • Cervical screening
      • Bowel cancer screening
      • Breast cancer screening
      • Lung cancer screening
      • Testicular cancer
      • Prostate cancer
      • Ovarian cancer
      • Liver cancer and hepatitis B
      • Check for skin cancer
    • CanAct – campaigning for better policies
    • Cancer Council shops
  • Research
    Research programs save lives, improve treatments and quality of life for cancer survivors.
    • Research we conduct
      • The Daffodil Centre
      • I-PaRCS
    • Research we fund
    • Search research by cancer type or topic
    • Information for researchers
      • Grant opportunities
    • Community participation in research
  • Get Involved
    Cancer Council exists through the generosity of the community. Find out how you can participate by donating, volunteering, fundraising or partnering with us.
    • Donate
      • Donate online
      • Make a regular donation
      • Donate in memory of a loved one
      • Make a major gift
      • Donate crypto
      • More ways to donate
    • Events and Fundraising
      • Events calendar
      • Fundraise your way – Do It For Cancer
      • Australia’s Biggest Morning Tea
      • Daffodil Day
      • Relay for Life
      • The Longest Day
      • The March Charge
      • 7 Bridges Walk
      • Stars Dance for Cancer
      • More ways to fundraise
    • Volunteer with us
    • Partnerships and philanthropy
      • Corporate Partnerships
      • Major gifts and philanthropy
      • Trusts and Foundations
    • Leave a gift in your will
    • Campaign with us
    • Work with us
    • Share your story
  • About Us
  • News
  • Shop
  • Health professionals
  • flags Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples
  • Home
  • Research
  • Forecasting lung cancer mortality rates in Australia

Forecasting lung cancer mortality rates in Australia

Professor Dianne O'Connell
Cancer Council NSW 2016-2018

Research at Cancer Council NSW has shown that Australia’s lung cancer mortality rates are in decline.

Background

Lung cancer has been the most common cause of cancer death over the last five decades in Australia with about 9,000 deaths estimated for 2019.  Tobacco exposure is the most significant risk factor for lung cancer, and it is well accepted that it is the most important contributor to lung cancer mortality.

The research

The team looked at lung cancer mortality rates in Australia, using past trends and historical and current data on tobacco consumption to project future lung cancer mortality rates.

The results show a decline in lung cancer rates by 2040, with male and female lung cancer rates declining from 27.2 to 15.1 per 100,000, and 15.8 to 11.8 per 100,000, respectively.  The research demonstrates that there is a lag of 26-29 years between smoking exposure and lung cancer mortality.  These projections reflect the effects of both past and present tobacco control interventions implemented in Australia up to 2016 including tobacco taxation, bans on tobacco advertising, smoke-free legislation, packaging restrictions, point-of-sale legislation, and anti-tobacco mass media campaigns.  The team observed that existing tobacco control measures may be starting to lose influence given that the decline in smoking rates slowed in 2016.

The study also found that despite the reduction in mortality rates, the number of lung cancer deaths will increase by 7.9% for males and 57.9% for females, due to population growth and ageing.

The impact

The findings reinforce the importance of a continued focus on proven effective tobacco control measures, such as smoke-free laws and mass media campaigns.  It is important that these are strengthened by implementing further evidence-based policies to reduce smoking rates in Australia and ensure lung cancer mortality rates fall further in the future.

Research team

Cancer Council NSW

Dr Qingwei Luo
Dr Xue Qin Yu
Dr Stephen Wade
Dr Michael Caruana
Dr Francesca Pesola
Professor Karen Canfell
Professor Dianne O’Connell (pictured)

Search research
Cancer research depends on your support
Donate now
Share

Achievements
18 Jun 2020

Addressing the needs of long-term prostate cancer survivors

Find out more
20 May 2020

HPV vaccine linked to decline in premature births

Find out more
Latest news
05 May 2025

Cancer isn’t just physical: here’s why supportive care is just as important

Find out more
Cancer Council NSW logo
  • About us
  • News & Media
  • Cancer Council Shop
  • Contact us
  • Work with us
  • Privacy and website policies
Aboriginal Daffodil logo

Cancer Council NSW acknowledges the traditional custodians of the land on which we live and work. We pay our respects to the elders past and present and extend that respect to all other Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Aboriginal Respect Symbol designed by Marcus Lee Design for Cancer Council NSW.

Registered Charity (ACNC)

© Cancer Council NSW 2024. Cancer Council NSW is registered with the Australian Taxation Office as an Income Tax Exempt Charity: Charitable Fundraising Authority No. 18521. ABN 51 116 463 846. Cancer Council NSW, 153 Dowling Street, Woolloomooloo NSW 2011. All donations over $2 are tax deductible.