Dr Michael Caruana

Senior Research Fellow
E: michael.caruana@nswcc.org.au

Research summary

Dr. Michael Caruana has over ten years experience designing and implementing modelling projects across different research fields and is currently team lead for the mathematical modelling group at Cancer Council NSW.  His research interests include the development of mathematical models that effectively simulate and describe complex health systems, efficient model calibration methods, stochastic analysis and rough path theory.


  • D.Phil. (PhD equivalent), University of Oxford.
  • Bachelor of Science (Hons, first class), University of Malta

Academic affiliations

Honorary Senior Research Fellow, School of Public Health, University of Sydney

Selected key publications

Canfell K, Kim JJ, Brisson M, Keane A, Simms KT, Caruana M, Burger EA, Martin D, Nguyen DTN, Benard E, Sy S, Regan C, Drolet M, Gingras G, Laprise JF, Torode J, Smith MA, Fidarova E, Trapani D, Bray F, Ilbawi A, Broutet N, Hutubessy R. Mortality impact of achieving WHO cervical cancer elimination targets: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Lancet 2020; 395(10224):591-603. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30157-4

Brisson M, Kim JJ, Canfell K, Drolet M, Gingras G, Burger EA, Martin D, Simms KT, Benard E, Boilly MC, Sy S, Regan C, Keane A, Caruana M, Nguyen DTN, Smith MA, Laprise JF, Jit M, Alary M, Bray F, Fidarova E, Elsheikh F, Bloem PJN, Broutet N, Hutubessy R. Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Lancet 2020;395(10224):575-90. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30068-4

Simms KT, Steinberg J, Caruana M, Smith M, Lew JB, Castle P, Soerjomataram I, Bray F, Canfell K Impact of scaled up human papillomavirus vaccination and cervical screening and the potential for global elimination of cervical cancer in 181 countries, 2020–99: a modelling study. Lancet Oncol 2019; 20(3): 394-407. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(18)30836-2

Canfell K, Caruana M, Gebski V, Darlington-Brown J, Heley S, et al. (2017) Cervical screening with primary HPV testing or cytology in a population of women in which those aged 33 years or younger had previously been offered HPV vaccination: Results of the Compass pilot randomised trial. PLOS Medicine 14(9): e1002388. ttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002388

Lew JB, St John DJB, Xu XM, Greuter MJE, Caruana M, Cenin DR, He E, Saville M, Grogan P, Coupé VMH, Canfell K. Long-term evaluation of benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in Australia: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2017 Jul;2(7):e331-e340. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30105-6.