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    • What is cancer?
    • Types of cancer
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      • Breast cancer
      • Lung cancer
      • Melanoma
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      • View 45 other cancers
    • Coping with a diagnosis
      • Coping with emotions
      • Tests and scans
      • Talking to kids about cancer
      • Cancer and your finances
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      • Radiation therapy
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      • Immunotherapy
      • Targeted therapy
      • Hormone therapy
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      • Palliative treatment
    • Managing side effects
      • Fatigue
      • Taste and smell changes
      • Hair loss
      • Pain and cancer
      • Peripheral neuropathy
      • Changes in thinking and memory
      • Lymphoedema
      • Mouth health
      • Nutrition and cancer
      • Breast prostheses and reconstruction
      • Fertility
      • Sexuality
    • Supporting someone with cancer
      • Caring for someone with cancer
      • Caring for someone with advanced cancer
      • Family and friends
      • Supportive schools
      • Supportive workplaces
      • Caring for mob with cancer
    • Living well during and after treatment
      • Nutrition and cancer
      • Exercise and cancer
      • Complementary therapies
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      • Living with advanced cancer
      • Caring for someone with advanced cancer
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      • Coping with grief
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      • Resources in different languages
      • Resources for LGBTQI+ people
    • Fact sheets, podcasts and more
      • Cancer resource hub – fact sheets, booklets and more
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    Our cancer helpline consultants are ready for your call to support all people impacted by cancer. We may be able to assist with direct support services or by putting you in touch with other people who can support you.
    • 13 11 20 – Speak to a cancer professional
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      • Accommodation during treatment
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      • Talking to kids about cancer
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    • Cancer podcasts
    • Meditation and relaxation podcasts
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    Discover lifestyle choices to minimise your risk of getting cancer and the importance of screening and early detection for cancer survival.
    • Healthy diet and exercise
      • Limit alcohol
      • Be a healthy weight
      • Move more, sit less
      • Healthy Made Tasty
      • Our Kids Our Call
    • Quit smoking and vaping
      • Quit smoking
      • Tackling Tobacco
      • Smoke free environments
      • Electronic cigarettes
      • Generation Vape
    • Sun protection
      • Slip on a shirt
      • Slop on sunscreen
      • Slap on a hat
      • Seek shade
      • Slide on sunglasses
      • SunSmart NSW website
      • Improve your long game
      • Outdoor workers
      • Sporting groups
      • Buy sun protection products online
    • Screening and early detection
      • Cervical screening
      • Bowel cancer screening
      • Breast cancer screening
      • Lung cancer screening
      • Testicular cancer
      • Prostate cancer
      • Ovarian cancer
      • Liver cancer and hepatitis B
      • Check for skin cancer
    • CanAct – campaigning for better policies
    • Cancer Council shops
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  • Predicting the future impact of lung cancer for men and women

Predicting the future impact of lung cancer for men and women

Cancer Council NSW 2009–2015

Researchers based at Cancer Council NSW have found that lung cancer rates for women are still rising, highlighting the need to further strengthen measures to stop smoking. By calculating lung cancer trends and projections, they have provided vital data that will help inform planning for the health care needs of patients in the future.

Background

Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers diagnosed in Australia and the leading cause of cancer death. Australia has little current data on how many people are going to need treatment for lung cancer in the future. Calculating the five-year prevalence rate of lung cancer highlights the number of people who are undergoing initial treatment, receiving ongoing post-treatment follow-up care, or who are receiving end-of-life care. This information will help Australia to plan future health services for the likely number of people who will require these intensive levels of care.

The research

  • The team analysed lung cancer cases diagnosed from 1983 – 2007 in NSW and found that for men, overall rates of lung cancer have declined over the past two decades. For women, unfortunately, there has been a rise in overall rates.
  • Generally speaking, there is a 20–30 year lag between smoking and the onset of lung cancer. In Australia, smoking rates among men started to drop in the 1950s, which resulted in a decrease in lung cancer rates from the 1980s onwards.
  • The reduction in smoking rates among women occurred much later and, therefore, it will be several years before the increase in lung cancer rates in women hits a peak and begins to decline. In fact, estimates based on the data predict that lung cancer prevalence for women in NSW will overtake that of men by 2017.

The impact

This research has highlighted the need for further strengthening of current smoking cessation measures in young people and women.

This should be considered a high priority in Australia since most lung cancers are attributable to smoking. These measures will help inform strategies to reduce the incidence of, and prevent further deaths from, lung cancer in the future. Improving early diagnosis is also vital, as the majority of lung cancer patients are diagnosed with advanced disease – which explains why survival rates are currently so low.

This research has provided a vital understanding of lung cancer trends, which will help inform future assessment of the resources and infrastructure needed to meet the demand for health services

Research team

Dr Xu Qin Yu
Cancer Council NSW

Ms Clare Kahn
Ms Qingwei Luo
Associate Professor Freddy Sitas
Professor Dianne O’Connell

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